Yesterday, the federal government released its Spring Economic Update, outlining Canada’s economic outlook and key policy measures amid global uncertainty. The update signals a sustained federal focus on advancing nation-building projects, diversifying trade, workforce development, and accelerating housing supply.
For businesses in Surrey and White Rock, the outlook is balanced but cautious. Economic growth is expected to remain slow in the near term, with ongoing cost pressures and more conservative investment decisions. At the same time, federal investments in areas like skilled labour, housing, and trade diversification could strengthen the region’s competitiveness over the longer term.
SWRBOT will continue to advocate for policies that turn federal investments into tangible economic growth, improved competitiveness, and real opportunities for our local business community.
Economic Snapshot
- Canada’s economy remains stable, but growth is slow:
- 1.7% GDP growth in 2025, with no recession anticipated
- Growth expected to be moderate in 2026 (~1.1%), before strengthening in 2027
- Canada projected to be among the fastest-growing G7 economies
- Measures included in the update represent a net cost of $37.5B over six years, starting in 2025-26
- Federal budget deficit projected $66.9 billion (down $11.5 billion from Budget 2025)
- Inflation remains near target, but energy and food costs remain volatile
The overall economic environment points to stability rather than expansion. Businesses should expect modest demand growth, continued input cost pressures, and a financing environment that remains relatively tight in the near term.
Key Takeaways
Skilled Labour Expansion
- Launch of Team Canada Strong to recruit and train Canadian workers
- Target of 80,000 to 100,000 new skilled trades workers by 2030-31
- Permanent Employee Ownership Trust Tax Exemption
Labour shortages remain a major constraint in Surrey and White Rock, and in the surrounding Metro Vancouver region. These measures signal a recognition that workforce capacity is impacting sectors such as construction and manufacturing. While the launch of Team Canada Strong is welcomed, the benefits will not be immediate – employers may continue to face hiring challenges in the near term.
Major Investment in Infrastructure & Industry (Building Canada Strong)
- 21 nation-building projects worth over $125 billion, supporting ~60,000 jobs
- New Canada Strong Fund (Canada’s sovereign wealth fund), backed by an initial $25 billion federal investment, to support Canadian projects and companies in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals
- Significant investments in:
- Critical minerals
- Defence manufacturing
- Trade infrastructure
There is a clear shift toward industrial policy and economic sovereignty. For Surrey and White Rock, investments through the Major Projects Office could generate significant downstream opportunities, especially for those in construction, logistics, manufacturing, and procurement.
Housing Affordability & Supply
- Housing demand in BC and Ontario remains weak, with activity at less than 30% of 10-year averages
- Condo and townhouse markets softened due to high costs and inventory levels
- Skilled trades employment in BC down 2.6%
- Federal response includes:
- Over $7B in low-cost financing
- Support for up to 16,500 new rental units
- $1.7B to provinces to reduce barriers to home building
- Expansion of modular and factory-built housing
The housing slowdown is having a direct impact on construction employment and business activity across the region. While federal support is significant, affordability and regulatory barriers remain major challenges.
Affordability Measures
- New Canada Groceries and Essential Benefit (CGEB) will provide $11.7 billion over 6 years (up to $1,890 per family)
- Temporary suspension of fuel excise tax
- Continued targeted tax relief measures
These measures will provide short-term household relief, and for businesses, particularly in retail, this may provide a modest boost. However, they do not address underlying cost drivers such as housing costs and supply chain inefficiencies.
Trade Diversification
- Continued push to reduce reliance on the U.S.
- Expansion of global trade partnerships
- Investments in trade-enabling infrastructure
For a trade-oriented region, Surrey and White Rock would benefit from improved port infrastructure, logistics capacity, and international market access, while strengthening
British Columbia’s position as Canada’s gateway to the Indo-Pacific region.
Safety and Security
- FINTRAC has been directed to prioritize resources to combat rising extortion:
- New Countering Extortion Partnership has been launched with financial institutions, law enforcement, and government to improve information sharing and coordination
- Dedicated FINTRAC liaison officers are being deployed in high-impact regions to support local police with financial intelligence
- Enhanced production of strategic intelligence to help financial institutions identify the laundering of proceeds of extortion
- The Spring Economic Update proposes an investment of $17.9 million over four years to strengthen FINTRAC’s capacity
- Funding will also support the development of a technology and AI roadmap to improve detection of illicit financing, including fentanyl-related activity
This is a particularly relevant measure for Surrey and White Rock, and the broader Metro Vancouver region, where extortion-related threats against small and medium-sized businesses have been a concern.
The emphasis on real-time financial intelligence and closer coordination between FINTRAC, financial institutions, and law enforcement could meaningfully strengthen the ability to detect extortion earlier on. For SMEs in our region, this has the potential to improve both deterrence and response capacity, particularly if intelligence sharing translates into faster local enforcement action. However, the effectiveness of these
measures will depend on how quickly national-level tools are integrated with on-the- ground policing capacity in high-risk communities like Surrey and White Rock.
The Surrey & White Rock Board of Trade will continue pushing for policies that ensure federal investments deliver measurable growth, increased competitiveness, and clear, on-the-ground benefits for local businesses.
